April 14, 2007

Top Ten Sleeper Prospects

A TSB writer gives us ten guys you won't find on Top 100 lists, but that you should keep an eye on.

Jake Kerns
TSB Staff Writer

At this stage in the year, there are many projections for who will improve their prospect stock. I, myself, enjoy reading these outlooks and always feel as if I could draw up a list that takes potential and performance into account. And, with that being known, I would like to introduce my first - of many, hopefully - sleepers list.

Gerardo Parra | Outfielder | Arizona Diamondbacks: It is no secret that the Diamondbacks are one of the best talent evaluators when it comes to prospects. They have produced some of the most exciting players in the game, and Gerardo Parra may be the next. For some scouts, Parra is seen as a similar player to Carlos Gonzalez; however Parra is merely 19 years old. Statistically, Parra sticks out because he led all Diamondback players with a .328 average in the minors last season. It is also important to know that he led the 2005 Dominican Summer League in hitting, which indicates his ability at the plate. He projects as a right fielder, and will display his skills this season in South Bend (Low Class-A). Don’t be surprised if you begin hearing his name this season.

Jose Mijares | Relief Pitcher | Minnesota Twins: Mijares has worked as both a starter and a reliever over the past five years in the minors, and it appears as if he will inevitably be a reliever in the majors. However, this should not hurt his stock, because he throws three plus pitches, all of which may be considered "out" pitches. As a starter, Mijares worked in the mid-90's, but could develop more velocity in the pen. Currently, Mijares is working as the closer for New Britain (Double-A) and could reach the Twins' bullpen by September. As it stands, the primary knocks on Mijares are his conditioning and control, which should be improved upon while working as a reliever. The Twins have a long history for developing pitching, especially middle relievers, and Mijares could very well be the next.

Carlos Triunfel | Shortstop | Seattle Mariners: Triunfel signed for $1,300,000 last summer and reportedly turned down more because he felt comfortable in the Mariners' system. He is highly touted as a potential 5-tool player, and already has the best infield arm in the system. While he is only 17 years old, Triunfel is already holding his own in the Midwest League. During the international signing period, most people considered Angel Villalona (Giants) to be the best player on the market. While this may be the case, it is more than reasonable to say that Triunfel will give him a run for his money. However, like any prospect - especially those who can’t drive in many states - there is a huge gap between his current ability and his ceiling.

Will Venable | Outfielder | San Diego Padres: Venable has appeared on several sleeper lists, so there is certainly a reason. However, those lists had zero influence on my ranking here. Venable should be more than quality in left field because he has a good swing and a solid frame. Along with this, he has a good baseball IQ, which is something that cannot be taught. This most likely stems from his father, Max, being a major leaguer. From a defensive standpoint, Venable is merely average. His lack of an arm and range will keep him in left field, but he should be able to become a regular at some point in his career. This year will be a big test for Venable because he will be 24 throughout the season and needs to prove that he is for real before he becomes "old" in prospect terms. It is unlikely that he reaches San Diego this year, but he should in 2008 or 2009.

Rick Vanden Hurk | Starting Pitcher | Florida Marlins: While Vanden Hurk made his major league debut on April 10th, it is unlikely that he will remain in the majors for more than a couple starts. I began this list before he was called up, and therefore will keep him on it. Along with Triunfel, Vanden Hurk is one of the hardest prospects on this list to accurately discuss. This stems from his medical history and the fact that he only pitched 25 innings in 2006. However, in those appearances, he managed to strike out 41 batters, while finishing the season in Jupiter. From a "tool" standpoint, Vanden Hurk offers a low-90's fastball, with an affective curve, cutter and changeup to finish out his repertoire. His frame and mound demeanor, to go along with his stuff indicates that he could be a middle-of-the-rotation starter, with the possibility of becoming a #2.

Tony Butler | Starting Pitcher | Seattle Mariners: It appears as if the Mariners may have gotten a steal in the 2006 draft. The third-round pick offers one of the best curve balls in the system, to go along with a low-90's fastball. To go along with this, Butler is 6'7" and could grow even more, because he is still only 19 years old. What Butler needs to do is improve his command and work on maintaining his secondary pitches. If he can do this, there is no reason why he cannot become a #3. From a statistical standpoint, Butler recorded 12.4 K/9 IP in his first pro season. While it is unlikely that he can continue this ratio, it does display his strikeout ability. In a nutshell, Butler has the second best arm in the system behind Brandon Morrow, and should continue to grow and establish himself as a top 100 prospect.

Eduardo Morlan | Starting Pitcher | Minnesota Twins: The Twins develop arms just as well as anyone in the majors. Therefore, it is no surprise that Morlan is the second pitcher on this list from the Twins' organization. Morlan has one of, if not the best, arms in the system. Drafted in 2004 out of a Miami High School, Morlan tops out in the mid-90's and offers a potential plus slider. Currently, Morlan is working as a starting pitcher, however because of his fastball/slider combo, he could be a long-term reliever, and potential closer. The Florida State League should be a good test for him this year, and could potentially determine what his exact role will be once he reaches the majors.

Marcos Vechionacci | Third Baseman | New York Yankees: Marcus Vechionacci is a player who has received some hype in the past. But recently, he has not performed up to those expectations. A recent ESPN article likened him to Miguel Cabrera and Aramis Ramirez, however that is not a fair comparison at this point. While that potential may be there, Vechionacci will have to gain some consistency. As of now, the best thing Vechionacci offers is patience and power potential. Last season, Vechionacci took 55 walks, compared to 52 strikeouts at Charleston. However, once he was promoted to Tampa, he struggled quite a bit. To be exact, Vechionacci hit .178 and took only 11 walks. These figures are alarming, but remember that he is only 20 years old. At this stage in his career, everything is projection. However, his upside could be 30 homeruns and 20 steals. He also offers plus defense at the hot corner. His "breakout" season has been predicted in the past, however, this could seriously be the season. Watch him.

D'Arby Myers | Outfielder | Philadelphia Phillies: Like many of the prospects on this list, Myers is all projection. A fourth rounder in 2006, Myers does offer all five tools, and could conceivably have the highest ceiling the system. Because last season was his first in professional baseball, it is very hard to get a reading on his potential. However, the fact that he hit .313 and had double digit steals is a good testament to what he can do in the future. Expect him to establish himself in Lakewood, where he should stay all season.

Brent Fisher | Starting Pitcher | Kansas City Royals: Fisher, ranked as the #2 LHP in the Royals system by Baseball America, has a similar repertoire to fellow Royal Zack Greinke. Fisher offers a high-80's to low-90's fastball, along with a curveball and changeup. Fisher uses quite a bit of deception with his pitches, but similar pitchers have had a hard time adjusting to major league batters. Therefore, Fisher will take some time to fully develop into the middle-of-the-rotation pitcher that he projects as. With only Tyler Lumsden ahead of him, Fisher could become the best LHP in the system by 2008, and eventually shoot up prospect lists. At this point, this is a homer pick; but the potential is certainly there.

Others to watch:
Kris Johnson (SP) Boston Red Sox:
Oswaldo Sosa (SP/RP) Minnesota Twins:
Francisco Pena (C) New York Mets
Jon Niese (SP) New York Mets
JoJo Reyes(SP) Atlanta Braves
Alex Smit (SP) Minnesota Twins
Chris Tillman (SP) Seattle Mariners
Jonathan Herrera (2B) Colorado Rockies

There you have it; my first sleeper list of the season. There are many prospects in the minors, and it is very hard to create a list of this size. However, these rankings were based on a combination of performance and potential, and will hopefully turn out accurate. I hope you have enjoyed this week’s article, and be on the watch for next weeks which will focus on scouting and projecting players.

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