AL Only Dynasty: Carlos Pena/1st Round pick for Lester and Saltalamacchia

[Patronus]

This is my AL Only H2H Points Dynasty League in which I am in the defending champion.

The problem is I lost Johan Santana and pitching is the key to winning this format.

Both my roster and the scoring is below this message.

I have the ability to trade Carlos Pena and my 1st round pick (#12 overall) for Jon Lester, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Trevor Cahill and Jason Hammell.

I project the top 12 players in the draft to be as follows (in no particular order):
Miguel Cabrera
Edgar Renteria
Josh Hamilton
David Eckstein
Dontrelle Willis
Luke Scott
Mike Lamb
Jacque Jones
Milton Bradley
Troy Percival
Cliff Lee
Scott Downs

As you can see - when we get down to that last player, the pickings get a bit slim - which I why I'm leaning towards doing this deal.

I'd also look to deal guys like Posada and Abreu, but keep the Vlad/ARod nucleus together and potentially compete again by 2009.

Thoughts?

We keep the majority (31) of our roster, so my returning team is:
C - Jorge Posada
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Alex Rodriguez
SS - Orlando Cabrera
OF - Bobby Abreu
OF - Vlad Guerrero
OF - Torii Hunter
UTIL - Ben Broussard
UTIL - Chone Figgins
UTIL - Macier Izturis

SP - Kelvim Escobar
SP - Chad Gaudin
SP - Mike Mussina
SP - Andy Sonnanstine
RP - Alan Embree
RP - Fernando Rodney
RP - Jason Frasor

Bench:
Corey Patterson, Ryan Shealy, Mike Sweeney, Chad Gaudin, Akinori Otsuka

Prospects:
Beau Mills, Trevor Crowe, Matt Harrison, Brandon Erbe, Eric Hurley, Michael Main.

Scoring specifics:
Batting
Stat Name Value
R Runs 1 point each
AB At Bats -.5 points each
1B Singles 2 points each
2B Doubles 3 points each
BB Walks (Batters) 1 point each
3B Triples 5 points each
SB Stolen Bases 2 points each
E Errors -1 point each
CS Caught Stealing -1 point each
KO Strikeouts (Batter) -1 point each
HP Hit by Pitch 1 point each
HR Home Runs 6 points each
RBI Runs Batted In 1 point each
CYC Hitting for the Cycle 20 points each

Pitching
Stat Name Value
SO Shutouts 5 points each
S Saves 10 points each
QS Quality Starts 10 points each
BS Blown Saves -5 points each
INN Innings 1 point each
NH No-Hitters 20 points each
ER Earned Runs -1 point each
HB Hit Batsmen -.5 point each
K Strikeouts 1 point each
HD Holds 3 points each
BBI Walks Issued -.5 point each
W Wins 10 points each
L Losses -5 points each
HA Hits Allowed -.5 point each

Scoring for Second Basemen, Shortstops, and Third Basemen
Stat Name Value
TPT Triple Plays Turned 5 points each
DPT Double Plays Turned 1 point each

Scoring for Catchers
Stat Name Value
AST Assists 2 points each (will revert to Caught Stealings @ +3 each if
available)
PB Passed Balls -1 point each

[Jack_Bauer]

I don't like this deal for you, for several reasons. While I understand you're looking to 2009, I don't think the players you are getting back will help you all that much, even in 2010.

First off, you'd be stuck with Broussard at 1B, which is a big step down power-wise. Shealy is a crapshoot.

Hammel has not found the plate. Lester is extremely risky. Cahill is a decent prospect in a myriad of similar prospects and his ETA is around 2010. So you'd have to protect that deadweight for the next 2 years.

Then Salty, he's not going to be playing 1B anymore and he's likely to spend most of 2008 in the minors. He's your best value in the deal, but you're still OK with Posada at C, so it's not all that urgent that you acquire him now.

You're giving up a hitter with huge HR totals in Pena who is not likely to repeat his lofty totals from last year. Hence, a good time to max. him out on a good season. His BA is below par, but in an AL-only format, he is a king-raker due to scarcity.

There is a huge drop off after that first position in your draft. If anything, I would try and land that 1st pick overall (even if it costs you Pena, as Miggy's production could compensate or he could be flipped for a package). I'd attempt a Pena, your first rounder and a third player for Miggy.

If you absolutely want pitching, then try and land more elite level prospect types or players who have 1 or 2 years MLB experience but who are on the verge of a break-out. I would much rather own 2 high upside pitchers for Pena, rather than the assortment of mediocrity you are currently considering. You have an excellent opportunity to max. out on Pena's value, so I'd go fishing a little deeper if I were you.

[Patronus]

Thanks for reading all of that and responding with an in depth post. I appreciat ethat.

Why don't you think Salty will be in the majors in 2008? I've heard absolutely nothing to indicate that he won't be starting the majority of the games at C for the Rangers this year.

He's still eligible at 1B for 2008, so I'd likely look to start him there this year as I don't expect him to spend any time in the minors this season.

Trust me, I'd love to land Cabrera - but that 1st round pick has very little value in a trade. If I'm moving Pena and and a 2nd player it'd have to be a very significant player I'd imagine.

I've just sent out an offer where I'd send Abreu and Posada for James Shields, Daric Barton and either Scott Baker or George Sherrill, so that could give me another option at 1B this year.

[Jack_Bauer]

You're welcome. I'll ask you for a small favor -- I have been looking for an AL-only or NL-only league -- if one of your fellow owners drops out, would you please drop me a PM?

As far as Salty's uncertain status for 08 and his return to C duties, here is the most recent Rotoworld blurb:

General manager Jon Daniels said Tuesday that Jarrod Saltalamacchia will remain at catcher rather than move to first base, but could begin 2008 at Triple-A.

In that case Gerald Laird would be the Rangers' starting catcher, although rumors have been swirling all offseason about Texas shopping him. "Anytime you can keep a player at a premium position, especially a young switch hitter with power, you keep him behind the plate," Daniels said. "We would have a decision. Is it backing up and getting experience in the big leagues or is it catching every day in Triple-A?"

I would not bet on Salty starting the year with the big club this year. And it seems pretty clear from the above quote that he will be a full-time catcher from now on.

If you still want to make that Pena deal for Salty as a centre-piece, I would advise that you try and convert Howell, Lester and Cahill for one or two higher level pitchers. As it stands now, all you'd be getting is a very good prospect in Salty -- and the brunt of the risk that the other players coming your way represent. I would think Pena has more value that your current return. Just my 2 cents.

[kfkorn]

If pitching is the key to winning this format, what about trading up for a higher first round pick to try to land Dontrelle Willis?

[Patronus]

Originally Posted by kfkorn

If pitching is the key to winning this format, what about trading up for a higher first round pick to try to land Dontrelle Willis?

Because pitching is the key to winning this format.

Seriously though, I'm not a big fan of Dontrelle Willis. I realize that he's one of the better players available in the draft, but I have no interest in paying what it would take to trade up and get him.

This league is full of really strong owners and the deals are rarely ever king maker trades.

JB, if an opening pops up I'll definitely let you know.

[Jack_Bauer]

Thx Patronus.

You've been dealt a serious blow by Santana's move to the NL -- too bad your league rules don't allow you an early pick to compensate.

I'd look at some of the prospects that went over to the AL in all of the major trades -- esp. those received by the A's for Haren. To a lesser extent, those received by the Twins for Santana and by Baltimore in the Tejada deal. Should help you get a better haul out of your draft.

Just goes to show you how you can't afford to rely on one major position player in an NL-only or AL-only format -- you lose the one guy and whatever was your strength suddenly becomes your weakness.

[Patronus]

We have in season compensation that is based on Tiering that each team establishes prior to opening day. If Santana had been dealt at the trade deadline last year, I'd have gotten serious compensation (and likely lost the league). Off season moves - you're out of luck.

[Jack_Bauer]

At least you've won the league, so it was all worth it in the end. Sometimes, you can stack an awful lot of great players and still end up losing.

I suppose you can retool from here. Since pitching is at a premium in your league, you're probably going to have to get it done with a longer-term perspective in mind, as the bigger names are going to be very costly.

[kfkorn]

Originally Posted by Patronus

Seriously though, I'm not a big fan of Dontrelle Willis. I realize that he's one of the better players available in the draft, but I have no interest in paying what it would take to trade up and get him.

Fair enough, then I would probably agree with JB about trying to get one or two better pitchers as opposed to receiving Jon Lester, Trevor Cahill, and Jason Hammell.